Pair #7279

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 15667

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: If Rose finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including The Masters, he must have made the cut at The Masters (you cannot finish top 10 overall without making the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8900
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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