Pair #7278

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (final results) does not necessitate finishing top 5 in Round 1 of The Masters — he could be outside top 5 after R1 and still finish top 10 overall. And finishing top 5 in R1 of The Masters does not necessitate finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -26.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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