Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS
Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 16684948
YES ask: 0.0560
NO ask: 0.9450
Last: 0.0560
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26EUR-JROS
Will Justin Rose finish as the top European golfer in the tournament?
Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:25.427Z
Volume: 23891
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose records the lowest total strokes among all European golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:33Z
Reasoning: If Justin Rose wins the Masters overall, he has the lowest total strokes in the entire field, which necessarily means he has the lowest total strokes among European golfers specifically — assuming he is European (Rose is English/European). The reverse does not hold. Confidence is medium rather than high only because the rules specify 'among all European golfers who complete the full tournament,' and Rose winning requires him to complete the tournament, so that condition is met. This implication appears logically sound.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0750
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A