Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP20-MAST26-JROS
The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-09T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7455
YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS
Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 16684948
YES ask: 0.0560
NO ask: 0.9450
Last: 0.0560
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Justin Rose wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:33Z
Reasoning: Winning the Masters does not require finishing top 20 in Round 1 specifically — a player can come from outside the top 20 after round 1 and still win the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.5460
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A