Pair #7274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9150

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 16684948

YES ask: 0.0560
NO ask: 0.9450
Last: 0.0560

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player can win from outside the top 10 after round 1. And finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7960
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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