Pair #7272

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-MAST26-JROS

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10171

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 16684948

YES ask: 0.0560
NO ask: 0.9450
Last: 0.0560

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:00:33Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters (overall) does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1 specifically — a player can win from outside the top 5 after round 1. And finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9360
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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