Pair #7265

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05BAEWAW-WAW

Will Stan Wawrinka win the Baez vs Wawrinka : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Stan Wawrinka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 30183

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stan Wawrinka wins the Baez vs Wawrinka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR05BAEWAW-1-WAW

Will Stan Wawrinka win set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Stan Wawrinka
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 2155

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stan Wawrinka wins set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:03:49Z

Reasoning: Wawrinka winning the match does not necessitate winning set 1 — he could lose set 1 and still win the match (e.g., losing set 1 then winning sets 2 and 3). Conversely, winning set 1 does not necessitate winning the match — he could win set 1 but lose the match. Neither direction implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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