Pair #726

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17891

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: Top 5 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. Entirely different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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