Pair #7234

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-NKAT

The Masters: Will Naoyuki Kataoka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1483

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-NKAT

The Masters: Will Naoyuki Kataoka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3191

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:03:05Z

Reasoning: If Kataoka finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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