Pair #7233

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-NKAT

Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the The Masters?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 119673

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka wins the The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-NKAT

The Masters: Will Naoyuki Kataoka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Naoyuki Kataoka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3191

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Naoyuki Kataoka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:03:05Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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