Pair #723

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81408

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 1989

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: If Justin Thomas leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 in R1 does not mean he is the outright leader.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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