Pair #7226

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-MAST26-BHOL

Will Brandon Holtz lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 942

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BHOL

The Masters: Will Brandon Holtz finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brandon Holtz
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22898

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brandon Holtz finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:03:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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