Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR06NORDE-DE
Will Alex de Minaur win the Norrie vs de Minaur : Round Of 32 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-04-06T12:00:00Z
Volume: 22372
YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alex de Minaur wins the Norrie vs de Minaur professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-DE
Will Alex de Minaur win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 416078
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Alex de Minaur wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning the Monte Carlo Round of 32 match — these are separate tournaments. Winning this match does not imply winning the French Open. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.3400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A