Pair #721

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81408

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:35Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar Championship (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. Neither direction holds.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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