Pair #7209

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AMIN

Will Alex de Minaur win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3377

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex de Minaur wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR06NORDE-DE

Will Alex de Minaur win the Norrie vs de Minaur : Round Of 32 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alex de Minaur
Expiration: 2026-04-06T12:00:00Z
Volume: 22372

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex de Minaur wins the Norrie vs de Minaur professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning the Monte Carlo Round of 32 match (Monte Carlo is not a Grand Slam). Winning this match does not imply winning a Grand Slam. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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