Pair #7206

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4147

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not mean winning any of them. Winning a major does not mean finishing top 10 in all 4 majors (could miss top 10 in the other three). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -35.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -39.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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