Pair #7204

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 390190

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ADS

The Masters: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 63874

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1220
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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