Pair #7203

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2024

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 390190

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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