Pair #7202

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2024

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ADS

The Masters: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 63874

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Scott could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open) without finishing top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean he wins any major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -17.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -21.93% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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