Pair #7201

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 390190

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0200

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Rules

If Adam Scott is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ASCO

Will Adam Scott win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3469868

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:25Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not mean winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9830
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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