Pair #720

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81408

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2449

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: If Justin Thomas leads after Round 1 at the Valspar, he necessarily makes the cut — a player who leads after Round 1 is unquestionably within the cut line. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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