Pair #72

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM-DEN

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z
Volume: 17875

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If LeBron James's next team is Denver before Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:32Z

Reasoning: LeBron joining Denver does not guarantee they win the Finals, and Denver winning the Finals does not require LeBron to be on the roster. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 27.86% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +23.64% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue