Pair #7197

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JBRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1335

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JAB

The Masters: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116606

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be any of the 4 majors, not necessarily the Masters, so it doesn't imply a Masters top 20. The reverse also doesn't hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -43.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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