Pair #7194

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 522075

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9780
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 of the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9930
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -3.08% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue