Pair #7193

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13832

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-AKB

The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 77033

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be any of the 4 majors — not necessarily the Masters — so it doesn't imply a Masters top 10. And a Masters top 10 doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -24.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -28.88% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue