Pair #7192

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 522075

YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9780
Last: 0.0230

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 has no bearing on finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -14.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0230
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -18.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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