Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-ABHA
Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 522075
YES ask: 0.0230
NO ask: 0.9780
Last: 0.0230
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Akshay Bhatia is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters, and leading after Round 1 has no bearing on finishing top 10 in all 4 majors.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-14.01%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0230
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-18.22%
BELOW HURDLE