Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-ABHA
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2896
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Akshay Bhatia finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-AKB
The Masters: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 77033
YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:02:03Z
Reasoning: If Bhatia finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, then he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters (one of the 4). The reverse does not hold — top 10 at the Masters alone doesn't mean top 10 at all 4.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-71.13%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2100
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-75.34%
BELOW HURDLE