Pair #7185

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 65874

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CAME

Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 586229

YES ask: 0.0310
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0310

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major could come from a different tournament entirely, and leading Round 1 of the Masters does not ensure winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 15.07% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9210
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +10.79% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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