Pair #7180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 708893

YES ask: 0.0480
NO ask: 0.9640
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:45Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could come from winning a different major entirely, and leading Round 1 of the Masters does not ensure winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.89% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9780
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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