Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC
Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?
Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BDEC
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1136276
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0510
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:30Z
Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading Round 1 of The Masters, and leading Round 1 does not guarantee winning a major.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
1.74%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9900
Days to maturity:
213
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-2.54%
BELOW HURDLE