Pair #7174

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BDEC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28452

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-BDEC

Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1136276

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0510

View on Kalshi

Rules If Bryson DeChambeau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:30Z

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading Round 1 of The Masters, and leading Round 1 does not guarantee winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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