Pair #7167

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 403490

YES ask: 0.0290
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:30Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors does not require leading after Round 1 of The Masters, and leading Round 1 does not imply a top-10 finish in all majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.55% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0190
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -15.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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