Pair #7165

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9400

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116310

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:30Z

Reasoning: Henley could win a major other than The Masters (no top-20 Masters finish implied), and he could finish top 20 at The Masters without winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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