Pair #7164

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RHEN

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4105

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RUH

The Masters: Will Russell Henley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 116310

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:30Z

Reasoning: If Henley finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he must have finished top 10 at The Masters, which is strictly within top 20. Top 10 necessarily implies top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.37% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue