Pair #7162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4456

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-VIH

The Masters: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 21488

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Hovland winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate a top 10 at the Masters — he could win a different major. And a top 10 at the Masters does not mean he won any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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