Pair #7159

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 113663

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 130972

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: If Rahm finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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