Pair #7158

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 130972

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Rahm winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate a top 20 at the Masters — he could win a different major. And a top 20 at the Masters does not mean he won any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.96% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue