Pair #7156

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66133

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: Gotterup winning a major in 2026 does not necessitate a top 10 at the Masters specifically — he could win a different major. And a top 10 at the Masters does not mean he won any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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