Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CHG
The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66133
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z
Reasoning: If Gotterup finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters specifically. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at the Masters alone doesn't guarantee top 10 at all four.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-52.22%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1200
Days to maturity:
56
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-56.43%
BELOW HURDLE