Pair #7155

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CHG

The Masters: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 66133

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z

Reasoning: If Gotterup finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters specifically. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at the Masters alone doesn't guarantee top 10 at all four.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -52.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -56.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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