Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-HMAT
Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 45194
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-HMAT
Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 41050
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:01:15Z
Reasoning: If Matsuyama finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A