Pair #7151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5722

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 45194

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Matsuyama could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open) without finishing top 5 at the Masters. And finishing top 5 at the Masters doesn't mean he wins any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

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