Pair #7146

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1087532

YES ask: 0.0690
NO ask: 0.9380
Last: 0.0690

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 171395

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9080
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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