Pair #7145

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 143639

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1087532

YES ask: 0.0690
NO ask: 0.9380
Last: 0.0690

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:55Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 of the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters from behind), and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 46.89% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7990
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +42.61% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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