Pair #7139

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37616

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-JROS

Will Justin Rose lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 779826

YES ask: 0.0360
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0360

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:35Z

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading after Round 1 at The Masters, and leading after Round 1 at The Masters does not imply winning a major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9960
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -3.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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