Pair #7137

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JROS

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 36687

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 185897

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:35Z

Reasoning: Rose could win a major other than The Masters (e.g., US Open), which would not require a top 10 at The Masters. And a top 10 at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No necessary implication either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -65.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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