Pair #7135

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 16113

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 205850

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors means finishing top 10 at The Masters, which is also top 20. So the antecedent necessarily implies the consequent. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -103.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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