Pair #7134

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JROS

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 14858

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JUR

The Masters: Will Justin Rose finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Rose
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 185897

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Rose finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-06T08:00:35Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in ALL 4 majors necessarily includes finishing top 10 at The Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at The Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 in all 4.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -96.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -100.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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