Pair #713

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30155

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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