Pair #7127

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05CERMAR-MAR

Will Pedro Martinez win the Cerundolo vs Martinez : Qualification Final match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Pedro Martinez
Expiration: 2026-04-05T11:00:00Z
Volume: 10351

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5700
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pedro Martinez wins the Cerundolo vs Martinez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR05CERMAR-1-MAR

Will Pedro Martinez win set 1 in the Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Pedro Martinez match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Pedro Martinez
Expiration: 2026-04-05T11:00:00Z
Volume: 310

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pedro Martinez wins set 1 in the Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Pedro Martinez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Neither direction holds necessarily. Martinez can win the match without winning set 1 (e.g., lose set 1 then win sets 2 and 3). And winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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