Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR05CERMAR-MAR
Will Pedro Martinez win the Cerundolo vs Martinez : Qualification Final match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Pedro Martinez
Expiration: 2026-04-05T11:00:00Z
Volume: 10351
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5700
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Pedro Martinez wins the Cerundolo vs Martinez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR05CERMAR-1-MAR
Will Pedro Martinez win set 1 in the Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Pedro Martinez match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Pedro Martinez
Expiration: 2026-04-05T11:00:00Z
Volume: 310
YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Pedro Martinez wins set 1 in the Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Pedro Martinez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Qualification Final, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:04:34Z
Reasoning: Neither direction holds necessarily. Martinez can win the match without winning set 1 (e.g., lose set 1 then win sets 2 and 3). And winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match overall.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A