Pair #7125

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR05MONGRI-MON

Will Gael Monfils win the Monfils vs Griekspoor : Round Of 64 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Gael Monfils
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 2322

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gael Monfils wins the Monfils vs Griekspoor professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR05MONGRI-1-MON

Will Gael Monfils win set 1 in the Gael Monfils vs Tallon Griekspoor match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Gael Monfils
Expiration: 2026-04-05T12:00:00Z
Volume: 2700

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Gael Monfils wins set 1 in the Gael Monfils vs Tallon Griekspoor professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-05T08:04:34Z

Reasoning: Neither direction holds necessarily. Monfils can win the match without winning set 1 (e.g., lose set 1 then win sets 2 and 3). And winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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