Pair #712

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30155

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JTHO

Valspar Championship: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2449

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:07:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the Valspar Championship necessarily means making the cut — you cannot finish in the top 20 overall without having made the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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